Increase in detention period until sentencing for rights defenders
A study examining 969 cases of individuals arrested, prosecuted, and tried for "disturbing social order" (DSO) crimes between 2008 and 2022, alongside nearly 200 cases of "endangering state security" (ESS) crimes, reveals a significant increase in the duration from initial detention to the issuing of sentencing.
The overall data collected for this and other prior analyses (see bottom), sourced from Safeguard Defenders (SD), the Chinese Human Rights Defenders (CHRD) network, and the U.S. Congressional-Executive Commission on China (CECC), encompasses approximately 3,000 cases. These cases are categorized into three periods: Hu Jintao’s second term (2008–2012), Xi Jinping’s first term (2012–2018), and Xi Jinping’s second term (2018–2022). Only cases concluded by the end of Xi’s second term (2022) and those with sufficient data on key variables were included, resulting in a total of 1,405 cases.
For DSO crimes, drawing from just under 1,000 cases, the average pre-trial detention period until sentencing increased from 270 days (2008–2012) to 340 days (2012–2018), and further to 412 days (2018–2022).
DSO crimes are the most common charges against human rights defenders, and include the now infamous picking quarrels and provoking troubles (article 293) and gathering a crowd to disrupt Public Order (article 290). Also, see SD’s separate release on the changing use of disturbing social order crimes.
It is important to note that the limited number of cases and the restricted availability of data, particularly for ESS cases which are often classified as state secrets, mean the findings are indicative rather than statistically significant. Nevertheless, the results align with observations from various sources, suggesting an increase in pre-trial detention times under Xi Jinping’s leadership.
For ESS crimes - using more limited data - the average detention period rose sharply from 288 days during Hu Jintao’s second term to 658 days during Xi Jinping’s first term, and 716 days during his second term.
ESS crimes, considered the most severe charges against rights defenders, include the well-known subversion of state power, inciting splittism, and colluding with foreign forces charges.
While these findings are striking and consistent with anecdotal evidence, the lack of comprehensive data, in particular for ESS crimes, limits their statistical significance.
The full dataset, available per request, looks at the following variables:
Gender, province, date of detention, date of trial, date of sentence, # days from detention to trial, # days from first trial to sentencing, # days from detention to sentencing, charge, type of charge, time period (mandate period), sentencing # year and months, sentencing # days, Covid period yes/no, data source.
Two prior public releases have utilized the same dataset:
A study (25 years on: China’s criminalization of Falun Gong in numbers) in changes how the criminal charge of “evil cult” has been used over this time period, in particular against Falun Gong adherents, was published July 22, 2024, on the 25th anniversary of the start of the crackdown, and can be found here.
A second study (For China, human rights is disturbing social order), on the changing use of Disturbing Social Order crimes, was released on October 8, 2024, and can be found here.
